Vermont’s Changing Population: Art Woolf on Demographics, Labor and the Economy
Thursday, August 20, 2026, on Common Sense Radio, with Bill Sayre, weekdays, 11 o’clock till Noon.
Art Woolf — economist, demographer, and author of the Substack entitled, Davis Dewey is Rich — joins Bill to discuss Art’s update on demographic trends in Vermont, the factors creating those trends, and the effect of these trends on the economy, present and future — with special emphasis on the natural rate of population change, and effects of the COVID Pandemic.
Potential Questions and Issues
What is the natural rate of change in population in Vermont, and how is it calculated? How do current rates of births and deaths compare with earlier times in history? And how does our natural rate compare with that of the nation as a whole?
What is the fertility rate, and how is it calculated? How does Vermont’s fertility rate compare with that of earlier points in time, and other parts of the nation, and of the world? What factors affect the fertility rate — and what is happening to the fertility rate in the world, except for Africa? Have fertility rates declined in Asia, India, and South and Latin America? Why is that? Rising per capital, and family income? Rising life expectancies? Population migration from farms to urban areas?
If Japan’s fertility rate has been in decline for some years, what can we learn from their experience that will be helpful to us in planning for the future of Vermont? Changes in the composition of spending — particularly health care spending, which already is high in Vermont, and in America? What role will robots play in care — health care, personal care? And, companionship? The role of artificial intelligence.
What can we learn about the effect of the COVID Pandemic on population trends, by examining age cohorts of those who died during the Pandemic? Older people were more vulnerable to COVID than younger people. Therefore, deaths may be lower than average after COVID, after being higher than average during COVID.
What should we know about migration — domestic and foreign — to Vermont?
What are the implications of Vermont’s population trends for lsbor force availability, and for the size and location of school enrollment?
And for the distribution of political power?
How do Vermont’s population trends affect Vermont’s rural hospitals?
What cost of living factors affect the cost of living for Vermont families and the cost of doing business for Vermont enterpries.
Education costs and property taxes. Per student spending as a percent of the national average. Health care costs and health insurance costs. How can the way in which health insurance is designed, affect the cost of health care. In much the same way education finance can affect education cost. That is, finding ways to strengthen the connection between decisions to spend and responsibility of pay.
Health Care, Taxes, Energy. The importance of government living within its means, and keeping tax rates competitive. Growing government revenue not by raising tax rates, but by growing the economy.
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