Ryan Young Discusses Inflation, Interest Rates, Trade and the U.S. Economy on Common Sense Radio
Friday, September 11, 2026, on Common Sense Radio, with Bill Sayre, weekdays, 11 o’clock till Noon.
Ryan Young, Senior Economist with the Competitive Enterprise Institute, joins Bill to review and evaluate key national economic reports recently released, most all of which affect the economic wellbeing of the Vermont people — inflation, interest rates, income, job creation, economic growth, deficits and debt. What we can learn about the health and vitality of the general economy, and the connections, as both cause and effect, with monetary and fiscal policy, including tariff policy.
This day being the 25th Anniversary of the 9/11 Terrorist Attack, Ryan and Bill begin by reflecting on the incompatibility of Terrorism with the ideals, practices and individual liberties of a free, self-governing society.
Potential Questions and Issues
This day being the 25th Anniversary of the 9/11 Terrorist Attack on America, it is a good time to reflect on how it has affected individual liberties in our self-governing free society. Substantial increase in opportunities for global free trade, and the resulting substantial increases in standards of living, and reductions in poverty. Immense reductions in frictions of trade, What this implied, and required in the role of government. The implications for trust, and confidence. And the assumption that the rules of trade are stable, predictable. And that all participants act in good faith and with good will. But — the resulting vulnerability to abuse and damage, when participants act in bad faith, and outside the rules and norms. What were the consequences for our freedoms, including free trade, mobility of goods and people, and for opportunity and prosperity. How does this illustrate Adam Smith’s principles, only in reverse. Uncertainty and Risk. Similarly for effect of Tariffs. What also, can we learn about the effects of the Civil War, when more that one in 20 young men died as a result of the war. That would be like more than 5 million young men in the nation today.
Also, political, civil, and religious unity in the immediate aftermath of the attack. Congress on the steps of the Capitol building singing God Bless America. Then the unity passed. Two different approaches to how to protect the nation — finding the balance between individual liberties and national security. The church’s of America gained substantial attendance for a few weeks.
Turning to current economic news, what do the latest reports on inflation and economic growth tell us? How will this affect the deliberations of the Federal Reserve in their next policymaking meeting?
What measure of inflation was released this morning? How does the CPE differ from the CPI? Is it worthwhile to consider both measures, in evaluating inflation pressures?
What other goal does the Federal Reserve weigh in the balance with inflation? What have the economic reports on economic growth, and income shown?
What will it take for the Federal Reserve to move their short-term interest rate, either up or down?
It appears that long term interest rates have risen noticeably since our last conversation. What does this tell us about expectations — for Federal Reserve monetary policy, and also for competition in the market for credit?
What should we know about the escalating trade war with Canada? How do tariffs affect economic growth? Uncertainty and unpredictability? What can we learn from Adam Smith? Why is the intent of a tariff to protect a particular industry, such as steel or aluminum, often only temporary, and in the meantime, results in higher costs for other industries and products?
What should we infer Bill Gates recent comments on Artificial Intelligence? And the comments by a recent insider of Anthropic about the ability of AI to accumulate wealth for itself and to use it to control human activity, with a 10 percent change to exterminate humans. The Tony Robbins Story about his AI assistant purchasing a car, and delivering it to his home.
How have the hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz affected economic activity in America, and in the world? About a fifth of the global supply of crude oil and natural gas, and likely an even greater proportion of global fertilizer supplies? The effect on agriculture? Perhaps about 9 million barrels of oil per day, a little less than 10 percent of world usage, is successfully making it through the Strait of Hormuz; plus some other suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia, may have increased oil production.
How were our Founders influenced by the same factors as Adam Smith, author of the Wealth of Nations? Did the Founders read the writings of Adam Smith? What is the Age of Reason, and the Enlightenment? What are the parallels between a free marketplace of ideas, and a free market for goods and services?
What will be the effect of advances in Artificial Intelligence on job growth and economic growth — short term and long term? What examples did Adam Smith consider to understand the effect of invention and innovation on economic growth and prosperity? What is the connection between the freedom to choose, freedom to compete — and the freedom to think, and to create and invent? How was the Patent System another innovation of our Founders? And what is the connection to property rights, and the fundamental rights associated with private ownership of property?
What will be the effect on economic growth and innovation, if we were to adopt the proposal for a government sovereign wealth fund to own half the stock in artificial intelligence companies?
What have we learned about the effect of trade on levels of family income in nations in which have restricted trade, either chosen freely, or had restrictions imposed upon them. Venezuela, Cuba, Argentina, Iran, Russia. As compared with England, prior to the Industrial Revolution.
What do we know about increases in wages, and wage growth relative to inflation? Do we know about wage or income growth, for low wage workers, as compared with workers with higher levels of income? What should we understand about interest rates, deficits, and debt? How do large deficits, and rising debt, affect our home mortgage market, and thereby, home construction? What is the crowding out effect? How does crowding out affect Federal investment and spending, as well as private investment?
A recent report said the highest one percent of wealth holders held 30 percent of the wealth, and that the lowest 50 percent held 3 percent of the wealth. Does this seem like a reasonably accurate estimate? How does this take account of the capitalized value of social security and Medicare payments — both as an asset and as a liability?
What would Adam Smith say about Government ownership of the stock of a company that processes rare earth minerals? What are rare earth minerals, and why are they important? What other examples, such as in high tech companies, do we have? What issues are at stake? What is the difference between public/private partnerships and public investment in private companies? Is it only a matter of degree, or are there substantial qualitative differences? Under what conditions, historically, have exceptions been made? During times of war, and existential national crisis? Will those who want more federal stock ownership in private companies, find ways to assert existential crisis? Examples — global warming, other examples?
What would Asam Smith say about the current popularity, particularly among young adults in school, of socialism? What did Marx and Engels have to say about Socialism, as a stage between Capitalism and Communism?
A recently released indicates that Vermont is one of the few states in which population has declined, as the natural rate of growth is negative, and as out-migration exceeds in-migration. Particularly, declines in our working age population, and young families? What does this tell us about difficulties Vermont will face in growing the economy, and producing tax revenue, while limiting the growth in demand for government services?
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