Vermont’s Economy, Demographics, and the Challenge of Affordability
Wednesday, September 16, 2026, on Common Sense Radio, with Bill Sayre, weekdays, 11 o’clock till Noon.
Art Woolf — economist, demographer, and author of the Substack entitled, Davis Dewey is Rich — joins Bill to continue their discussion of the state of the Vermont economy, challenges and opportunities — with special emphasis on affordability for Vermont working age individuals, and their families, and the likelihood that they might migrate to another part of the nation.
Potential Questions and Issues
Let’s start by examining how demographic trends affect the economy. For example, what are the trends in working age population? It has declined substantially, How much, and over what time period? To what extent is working age population correlated with labor force? What are the implications of this trend? For the availability of employees for growing Vermont businesses? For tax revenue to fund the necessary functions of government, without raising tax rates? For school enrollment — particularly in rural areas? For sustaining rural hospitals?
What should we know about the affordability of housing? Median price for home sales, and mortgage rates? What is the difference between affordable housing and housing affordability? What role do older homes, in need of repair, play in housing affordability? How can it be that we have a housing shortage when the Vermont population, it appears is in decline? What has happened to average household size? What has happened to Vermont’s fertility rate, and the number of births and deaths, as well as in-migration, and out-migration? What other States have lost population in the last two or three years? California, New York, for examplee. What can we learn from their experiences?
How does the demand government services change as Vermot’s demographics change — for example, the use of medical services as the population ages? How did the Covid Pandemic affect Vermont demographics, and thereby, government spending and revenues?
What is real income? What should we know about the long term trend in per capital real income, and family real income? On a short term basis, for example, a year or ever two or three yeas, it might not seem like much — perhaps 1 or 1 and half or 2 percent per year. But over the course of 50 years, the difference is quite substantial. What some examples of how our standard of living has improved with increases in real income? New products, services, and experiences. More leisure time. How do we measure productivity in the economy? How do improvements in productivity affect real wages and real income? What factors cause improvements in productivity? Capital investment —
In buildings, machinery and equipment, and in technology.
As the cost of hiring human services increases, what is the effect on the demand for robotic services? What can we learn from the experiences of Japan, about how to make use of robotic services, as their population ages? What else can we learn from Japan about the implications for the economy as a population ages?
What should we consider in evaluating the risks and benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI), today and in the future? What can we learn from the way public policy addressed nuclear power? Or the internet?
What kinds of changes should we make in public policy to arrest and reverse some of these demographic trends? And to improve prosperity and affordability in Vermont?
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